POWIP Piece of Work In Progress

“If it’s not true, you have the right to know”

Well, it looks like the Numbers Guy column at the WSJ beat me to Simpson's Paradox [no, not really... I wrote about it long, long ago. But I will update for use with life expectancy and "average temperatures"].

But before I pile onto the fun of Climaquiddick, let's check the definition of science:

Dictionary? Wikipedia? No, silly, They Might Be Giants:

Fine, fine, here's something from some physicists:

(Adopted by Council on November 14, 1999)

Science extends and enriches our lives, expands our imagination and liberates us from the bonds of ignorance and superstition. The American Physical Society affirms the precepts of modern science that are responsible for its success.

Science is the systematic enterprise of gathering knowledge about the universe and organizing and condensing that knowledge into testable laws and theories.

The success and credibility of science are anchored in the willingness of scientists to:

1. Expose their ideas and results to independent testing and replication by others. This requires the open exchange of data, procedures and materials.
2. Abandon or modify previously accepted conclusions when confronted with more complete or reliable experimental or observational evidence.

Adherence to these principles provides a mechanism for self-correction that is the foundation of the credibility of science.

To be sure, there are plenty of areas of science where direct testing is precluded [paleontology comes to mind, but there are the fossils and one can compare against current animal bones, etc.; with regards to evolution, one can use DNA testing to infer what has happened in the past.] But usually there's something tangible you can point to, that you hand over to others to check.

If the raw data aren't even available, your claim to truth - "or did someone just tell it to you?" - isn't exactly science.

[I remember making the argument that Niven and Pournelle's novel Inferno was science fiction, as opposed to fantasy, as the main character acted as scientist...and through his "tests" determined he was actually in Dante's vision of Hell.]

I remember "peer-reviewing" a paper presented to CITES where Japanese and Cuban researchers were making the claim that a sustainable open ocean sea turtle fishery could be maintained, and part of their report had to do with inferring the age of the turtles according to shell measurements. And I checked their "data" from which they supposedly developed their model.... and I realized it was the model output and not the raw data at all. Seems to me you can't use your model to "adjust" the data and then use the model to validate it. Hmmmmm. [We were told by our research advisor that our analysis really didn't matter anyway - that CITES would shoot down the proposal from pure politics anyway. That's when I got an inkling as to the "purity" of modern science.]

Anyway, for the hell of it, I'm putting in my fave song from the DVD [with annoying BoingBoing wrapper. Oh well, it's free]:

Meep

Meep is a member of the Irish Catholic mafia, having a suspiciously high number of green-eyed, red-haired friends. While she doesn’t have red hair herself [except when she goes into the sun (rare for any vampire)], she does have green eyes. She’s a raving Papist and is a life actuary on the side [i.e., she counts dead people]. An amateur pain-in-the-ass [willing to go pro!], she likes covering retirement, mortality, math, and education issues.