POWIP Piece of Work In Progress – Former Abode of Dan Collins

Is a resumption of the Korean War on the Thanksgiving Day menu?

Regrettably, it may be, if yesterday’s artillery exchange, and the escalating rhetoric, is any indication.

Tensions between the two nations have been high as of late for what analysts say are manifold reasons.  Some South Korean sources believe that the aggressions are a contrivance to promote national, and more important perhaps top military brass, solidarity behind Kim Jong-Un, the youngest son of Kim Jong-Il; to “blood” the new ruler so to speak.  Other western analysts see the most recent action as a perverse sort of “signal” to the US that it needs to resume the 6 party peace talks that were suspended two years ago; a possibility that was categorically ruled out again, at least in the short term, on Saturday following the revelation by North Korea of a new uranium enrichment facility.  Or it may just be Kim Jong-il  continuing to test Obama's "mettle" in the wake of the administration's weak responses to both the sinking of the Cheonan and last year's missile tests by the regime.  But whatever the underlying motivation, it’s hard to see how today’s exchange can do anything but fuel the anger and resentment of the South Korean people, especially after last spring’s sinking of the South’s Corvette, which resulted in 46 deaths, an action for which the North still denies any responsibility.

Tuesday’s artillery exchange, perhaps the most serious cross-border incident since the Korean war, took place on, and in the vicinity of, the island of Yeonpyeong, approximately 75 miles west of Seoul, near the disputed Yellow Sea border with the North: the same area where the Cheonan was sunk in March.  Now, artillery exchanges have taken place many times before, in the region of the De-Militarized Zone, but what is different this time is that civilians were involved.  In addition to reports of the destruction, or damage, of 70 houses, at this time the reported casualties are 2 Marine killed, 16 Marines injured, and 3 civilians injured.

As is generally the case, the North maintains that the South Koreans provoked the fire by conducting military exercises in the region; the South has admitted that such exercises were underway off the west coast of the Korean peninsula, but state that they crossed no borders and none of their fire was directed towards the north.  North Korea initiated the action by firing what is believed to be 200 artillery rounds at a military base located on the island, some shells striking the adjacent town.  South Korean forces responded via 80 rounds of return fire, which I assume was counter-battery in nature, at the offending North Korean artillery units---although this is not specified in any of the reports.  They have also sent some F-16’s to the area, and South Korean President Lee Myung-bak has warned that he will order “stern retaliation” to any further provocation from the North, going so far as to openly threaten to strike a missile base located near the offending coastal artillery locations.

The U.S., EU, UK, Russia, and Japan have condemned the North Korean attack, calling it a belligerent action.  North Korea's principal ally, the Chinese, has refused to do so stressing instead that both sides must do more to contribute to peace.  Which, you know, is not an entirely shocking development from the nuclear-equipped rogue regime's chief enabler.

This is one of those events that can't be planned for by any administration; let's hope and pray that Mr. Obama's team is up to the task.  Being a hawk, it's no surprise that I think it's way past time to get tough with North Korea; but that may only be a path to more bloodshed.  So instead, let's pray for God's guidance for all those involved.  Also, let's pray for the Korean people on both sides of the DMZ, and that their governments see the error of their ways, where applicable, and arrive instead at a peaceful resolution to their dispute.

Rocketman