POWIP Piece of Work In Progress

1Mar/116

SuperDuper Public Pension Roundup! 1Mar2011

I've got a metric shit-ton (that's the technical term. Google it.) of tabs open right now, and they MUST! BE! CLOSED!

So let's kick it.

CALIFORNIA
This story is so bad, it gets top billing:

Two high-ranking officials at the Orange County Employees Retirement System have been placed on paid leave in connection with a $228 million mistake that has resulted in multi-million dollar pension catch-up bills for agencies countywide.

In particular, the Orange County Fire Authority has been handed a catch-up bill of $76 million – the amount of contributions that went uncollected for eight years for “special pay” stipends for paramedics, EMT’s, and others with specialized jobs.

“To get a bill like that was devastating,” said Joe Kerr, president of the 800-member Orange County Professional Firefighters. “How could this oversight have gone on for so many years?”

OCERS has agreed to let the firefighters pay the bill over a 25-year period, at $4.5 million a year, beginning in July, said Lori Zeller, OCFA assistant chief of business services.

Now, I've made substantial errors in my time, but nothing like that. That took some doing. I have a feeling that more than those two will end up gone by the time that mess is cleaned up. If it gets cleaned up. This has been going on since 2003, it seems.

This next one is actually more important, and I will write a separate post on this later....in my copious free time. Ha. This is the Little Hoover Commission reviewing public pensions in California:

But a new report from the Little Hoover Commission in Sacramento makes a more troubling point: Many state and local government employees have been promised pensions that the public couldn't have afforded even had there been no crash.

The commission's analysis of the problem is hotly disputed by union leaders, who contend that the financial woes of pension funds have been overblown. The commission's recommendations are equally controversial: Among other things, it urges state lawmakers to roll back the future benefits that current public employees can accrue, raise the retirement age and require employees to cover more pension costs. Given that state courts have rejected previous attempts to alter the pensions already promised to current workers, the commission's recommendation amounts to a Hail Mary pass. Yet it's one worth throwing.

Here's a link to the full report, and a short overview of the report's contents. Across the pond is a similar study, with more incendiary language -- calling public pensions "Madoff-style pyramids". And yet another report -- most public pension plans are in crisis.

Look. The unions had better think about what they're going to be able to live with, b/c "I've got mine" ain't going to work. They don't got theirs til all the cash is in hand, and they're dead, no longer receiving pension payments. That stuff can be taken away, as a practical matter, at any time.

States cannot run the printing presses. The money can, indeed, run out. Current retirees, forget about current employees, can get dinged in a major way.

Many states and cities are making changes right now to try to make sure the promises might actually have a chance of being achieved. And that may involve a variety of benefit haircuts, amongst other things.

Some people are still in denial about these possibilities. "It's illegal!" they cry. Ask the retirees of Prichard, Alabama if legality pays their pensions. Because they've gotten nothing since 2009.

So quit having the vapors over changing benefits for current employees and thinking there must be some more rich people to tax. It can, and will, get much worse than that.

That's it for my commentary. Now it's time for the link explosion.

Charter amendment in L.A. to roll back public safety benefits.

Showdown brewing over CA state employee pensions.

Employee pensions much higher than advertised.

A rundown of the proposals Brown had made during his gubernatorial campaign.

Tim Cavanaugh from Reason on how public pensions killed California. More on pensions bankrupting California.

Reform sought by Orange County Republicans...including the newly popular "Let's rescind collective bargaining!" Kevin Williamson explains that it's not the collective bargaining that makes for the awful amounts of public employee benefits, but the mere political existence of public employee unions. Back to those O.C. pols: more coverage of their proposals. And yet more coverage.

Considering defined contribution plans for public safety workers in San Diego.

Pension crisis? What pension crisis? Almost 200 California plans raise benefits.

FLORIDA

Revision to Florida pension bill, requiring more employee contributions as part of Governor Scott's push to reform Florida pensions. There have been lots of editorials supporting Scott's proposed changes. Scott compared the Florida situation to Social Security problems.

Evidently, part-timers had been getting pensions from Florida.

Looking at pension reform choices in FL. More considering what needs to be done in Florida.

Analysts say Florida fund is okey-dokey. So...have they fixed that "sole trustee" issue, yet? More on that analysis.

RHODE ISLAND

Rhode Island has highest unfunded pension liability per capita

PBS Newshour coverage of the Rhode Island incipient pension disaster

A tale of Providential double-dipping.

More on Rhode Island's pension squeeze.

MISSISSIPPI

Mississippi puts off increasing pension fund contributions

VIRGINIA

Plan to divert school funds to pension funds not popular

NEW YORK

Reminder that Cuomo said he wants to tackle pensions. He's been pretty quiet lately, hasn't he?

Mayor Bloomberg also proposed pension cuts, noting that the city has no power in negotiating those.

NEW JERSEY

It's the heavyweight champeen Gov. Christie in this corner against flyweight MD Gov. O'Malley, duking it out over pension reform.

Massive head for the exits in NJ... might as well collect benefits before the money runs out.

Christie says NJ pensions will be broke by 2020 without reform. I guess he's been reading John Bury. Even with reforms, the future isn't bright.

D.C.

D.C. pensions need reform, too.

WISCONSIN (v. MINNESOTA)

A comparison of what WI and MI employees pay for their pensions.

More on the Wisconsin employee benefits and collective bargaining.

Wisconsin's pension fund one of the financially healthiest in the country.

OHIO

Burden of pension reforms to be put on employees for Ohio's five pension plans.

Keep an eye on this court case about retiree health benefits....because post-retirement healthcare is considered one of the weakest benefits in most public employee benefits packages, because almost all of that is pay-as-you-go -- and that's most definitely =not= sustainable.

NEW HAMPSHIRE

GOP proposals for NH pension reforms.

Public employees protest pension reforms.

ILLINOIS

Governor claims that Illinois pensions won't need federal bailout. HA HA HA. Wow, he's getting good at that stand-up act.

TEXAS

Teacher pension plan working against spiking- the practicing of goosing the final year salary to get a higher pension payout.

GENERAL ISSUES

And now, in the interest of some balance, something from a Teamsters leader.

And another pro-public employee point-of-view...it's actually reasonable, though. You should read this one.

The problem is that the blame game doesn't get the pensions paid. Progressives try to gin up a class war and find the haves v. have-nots weren't the classes they had in mind.

The best case scenario at this point for many public employees is to end up in the same system as most private workers, and most will get at least some of the benefits originally promised them.

Prichard won't be the last case of a public pension going totally under and the retirees ending up with nothing. So people should make their plans accordingly.

Meep

Meep is a member of the Irish Catholic mafia, having a suspiciously high number of green-eyed, red-haired friends. While she doesn’t have red hair herself [except when she goes into the sun (rare for any vampire)], she does have green eyes. She’s a raving Papist and is a life actuary on the side [i.e., she counts dead people]. An amateur pain-in-the-ass [willing to go pro!], she likes covering retirement, mortality, math, and education issues.

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30Jan/110

Public finance and pensions roundup 30 Jan 2011

INSTALANCHE! Howdy new readers - if you really want to get depressed, I've got a whole series on this subject.

BANKRUPT STATES

I'll lead off with John Bury's post adding to his argument that NJ is the most bankrupt. His prior post on NJ being number one. I think Illinois is in a worse situation, but I do agree with Bury that any business that jumps from Illinois to NJ is jumping from the frying pan straight into the fire. I don't care how much one likes Chris Christie.

In other news, the credit rating agency Moody's is warning the states that it will [FINALLY DAMMIT] be factoring in unfunded pension liabilities in the states' credit ratings.

Jeb Bush and Newt Gingrich sticking their oar in on a plan to make some sort of federal bankruptcy for states. Ace posting on that story. The states are not amused about any of this. LA Times editorial against the idea. Various quoting of pols.

The impact of state indebtedness on current services and infrastructure projects.

Three strategies for broke states - relates to government-run schooling.

Forget about education - a real low-hanging fruit of state expenditure is Medicaid.

NEW YORK

Bloomberg decides it's about time to get around to addressing NYC pensions. Given that he can't run for mayor again, and may be seeking a larger political stage. Banning trans fats and promoting bike lanes only gets you so far.

An "alternative view" on public pensions. I'll let you make your own rebuttals. For example, I'm sure the people of NJ are very happy that pension payments are contributing to communities in Florida. Small portion of the budget? Tell that to Salinas. I guess from one point of view, 14% is small. If it stayed there.

Double-dipping in New York ["retiring" and then getting rehired - so getting both salary and pension payments at same time.]

CALIFORNIA

Marcia Fritz of California Foundation for Fiscal Responsibility talks about the need for pension reform in the Golden State.

The "new" governor Jerry Brown decides to give the pension issue a pass, and proposes other cuts...that doesn't even cut half the budget gap.

San Diego town council not covering public workers for prior sweet deal made improperly. To wit: the workers have got to eat it, to the tune of about $100MM collectively. Hey, the workers who got payments over what they should have should be happy they're not being asked to pay the excess back for benefits already received. Anyway, it will almost definitely go to court.

California pols really not happy about idea for state bankruptcy.

More from San Diego - the downside of getting new employees out of the defined benefit system. They don't pay into the fund. Now, given that defined benefit plans for state pensions are not supposed to be Ponzi, this shouldn't be a big deal. I don't see why new employees really should be plugging up the holes of overly generous benefits for prior ones.

ILLINOIS

Not exactly only about Illinois, but a Washington Examiner editorial notes the sweetheart deal Quinn cut with unions right before his election.... and the proposed transparency bill by Rep. Issa in the House that could derail such a deal. [Of course, there's no way this sucker is getting much past the House. But you've got to start somewhere.]

Illinois is getting a little extra scrutiny from the SEC on its recent pension accounting switcheroo. More on same. And more on same from the NYTimes. An editorial on the issue.

An editorial with one of my favorite proposals: no pensions for legislators. They already get to vote on their own salary.

Chicago proposal on pensions: increase employee contributions, make goal to reach 80% fundedness in 50 years [as opposed to 90% in 30... either way, I think there will be a cashflow problem long before the proposed horizons].

Illinois still not current on its bills.

Meep

Meep is a member of the Irish Catholic mafia, having a suspiciously high number of green-eyed, red-haired friends. While she doesn’t have red hair herself [except when she goes into the sun (rare for any vampire)], she does have green eyes. She’s a raving Papist and is a life actuary on the side [i.e., she counts dead people]. An amateur pain-in-the-ass [willing to go pro!], she likes covering retirement, mortality, math, and education issues.

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23Jan/110

DOOOOOOOOOM … Pensions and Public finance roundup 23Jan2011

So I hear from my ma that some football game is on right now, which seems like the perfect time for a MASSIVE LINK DUMP! I will not dump Illinois links right now... [my ma tells me that Chicago is sucking and it's halftime - so it will be extra chocolatey schadenfreude tomorrow, eh?]

I'm not even bothering with a narrative right now. I'm just doing a bulleted list. Some of these date back to December [or maybe earlier], but given the long-term issues of public finance and public pensions, that's just a second in that world.

Ok, halftime is probably over by now. But the Jets aren't playing yet, and we know that's the only game that matters.

Meep

Meep is a member of the Irish Catholic mafia, having a suspiciously high number of green-eyed, red-haired friends. While she doesn’t have red hair herself [except when she goes into the sun (rare for any vampire)], she does have green eyes. She’s a raving Papist and is a life actuary on the side [i.e., she counts dead people]. An amateur pain-in-the-ass [willing to go pro!], she likes covering retirement, mortality, math, and education issues.

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21Jan/114

California’s fiscal future… and that of other states/munis

After my prior posts on municipal/state bankruptcies and municipal bonds, it seems the story is picking up more steam.

First - there is an actual, concrete event involved here: Vallejo, California working out its bankruptcy.

The city of Vallejo, California, proposed paying some creditors as little as 5 percent of what they are owed, making it the first general municipality that would fail to fully repay its debts in bankruptcy.

General unsecured creditors would collect 5 percent to 20 percent of their claims under the plan of adjustment filed late yesterday in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Sacramento, the state capital.

No city or county has used federal bankruptcy laws to force creditors to take less than they are owed, according to Bruce Bennett, the lead lawyer for Orange County, California, when it filed the biggest municipal bankruptcy in the U.S. in 1994.

Vallejo’s plan assumes the city can’t provide essential services, like police and fire protection, while also paying its debts, he said. Should the city succeed, the case “may become an important precedent,” Bennett said in an interview.

[Thanks to Coalition of the Swilling for the link here, and the link to the Zero Hedge coverage]

I guess that "hysterical bond market" wasn't being too crazy after all, huh? A 20% recovery rate is crap for munis in bankruptcy -- usually bondholders have been made whole in the past of municipal bankruptcies [I'm not talking state bond defaults here].

But Vallejo is an interesting case. This this has been going on for a few years now, where various parties have been wrangling over the carcass of this once richer Naval base city. I found an interesting comment on that Zero Hedge post which explains the situation a bit better:

I've been a resident of the surrounding area all my life and lived in Vallejo for the last 4 years - It's an old navy town that's been dying as long as anyone can remember - every once in a while someone trys to bring industry (you know, jobs) back to Mare Island (the old navy yards) but the city council, or local enviro groups, or general stupidity destroys that opportunity. Vallejo is actually a very nice place to live, and while it doesn't have jobs it has some very nice old neighborhoods with beautiful victorians and craftsman style houses. The community is majority black, but there didn't used to be a ton of tension. I lived right in the heart of downtown for the last few years before moving to a house in a small neighborhood, and things have degraded quickly. Lots of homeless on the streets, a camp set up in the marsh next to the highway that the cops are always chasing them away from. Another vacant lot where people go to sell their stuff after they get evicted.

The various public service unions have been "negotiating" with our city "leaders" for years, and the tone was made clear when the lead delegate from the police union said "Fire however many you want, but don't cut our pay" (I'm paraphrasing, but it really was that blatant) - So that's what's happened. Now there are times when our city of 120,000 has less than 5 police on duty, and they're doubled up in patrol cars for safety (read that in the paper a few weeks ago, joy of joys) - Of course, they're still taking time to nail people for moving violations but then who expects anything more in these backwards times.

Lots more of that comment there - follow the link to read it all.

One part of this story that I haven't seen the details about is that one of the unsecured creditors is the pension plan itself. Or, rather, Calpers. I haven't heard about their part in the deal.

The thing is, I don't think the public unions have fully learned their lesson yet. They are holding on to their old pay/benefits structure as long as possible [understandable], but haven't yet come to terms with the fiscal reality [foolhardy] that they're going to have to deal with. They don't realize how close to the cliff they are.

They have got to prepare. Some short-term measures will occur, but it is getting harder and harder to keep the cashflows sufficiently covered. A state can pay its vendors and employees with IOUs for only so long.

It sounds like those on the federal scene do see that outright state bankruptcies are ahead and are trying to facilitate that, while Republicans make promises of not bailing out the profligate.

Not trying to be Chicken Little here, but given that a well-known financial analyst has predicted 50-100 municipal bankruptcies [and forget about the states], I don't want to be hearing the whining about "unprecedented!" Sure, it is unprecedented, but it was also predictable. Jerry Brown may disclaim, but he's part of the reason California got so bad [the main reason, of course, is the California electorate. I blame them more.] What did they expect to happen if they kept shoveling money in a trough? I suppose they have the "Tooth Fairy theory" of money - do something minor and windfalls ensue.

Separately, some investment advice re: munis, which is on a par with what I've been recommended -- no one can afford to be lazy in their money-handling nowadays. There will be no bailouts.

Oh, by the way, historically, bad things have happened when public debt got out of hand.... and do not be surprised if Europe starts recapitulated the turmoil of the Age of "Reason".

Meep

Meep is a member of the Irish Catholic mafia, having a suspiciously high number of green-eyed, red-haired friends. While she doesn’t have red hair herself [except when she goes into the sun (rare for any vampire)], she does have green eyes. She’s a raving Papist and is a life actuary on the side [i.e., she counts dead people]. An amateur pain-in-the-ass [willing to go pro!], she likes covering retirement, mortality, math, and education issues.

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19Jan/110

No Federal Bailouts: Let Them Eat IOUs

I first saw David Skeel's proposal to make a federal law to allow for entire states to go bankrupt back in November 2010. Kenneth Anderson at The Volokh Conspiracy pointed out some real state sovereignty issues with this proposal-- federal judges making essentially political decisions? [not like they've not already dictated state budgets before].

Later Joe Mysak notes that Chapter 9 bankruptcy, which is available to municipalities, would not fix the public pension problem painlessly.

People look at historical examples, which show that under municipal bankruptcies, everyone will get screwed. Except the politicians who had set up the problem and left in a timely manner. States do go bankrupt, in terms of defaulting on their bonds -- it was more common in the 19th century, and we've not had a good state bond default for almost 80 years now.

I've been sitting on some of these links for months and cogitating on the possibility of federal bankruptcy law for states, and yadda yadda yadda. I'm going to let the law-talking dudes talk that one over. I'm more in the money-counting/number-crunching crowd. And definitely, like Tom Sowell, in the No Bailouts crowd.

There's going to be a lot of whining from the "Ooooooh, won't somebody think of the poor public employees!" crowd, in trying to gin up a federal bailout, but boy, your timing is bad. Reality will hit, and that "will" is not that far in the future.

Those who wrote a "positive right" to the public pensions for workers forgot that government is not all that great at enforcing positive rights like that -- if they've not been good at preparing for their promises, they will be able to squeeze taxpayers only so much to try to fulfill them. Once the financial event horizon has been crossed, it will not matter what various parties "deserve", it will not matter what is "guaranteed" in various state constitutions. When there ain't no money, somebody is going to have to alter their expectations, and that's going to hit a lot of somebodies.

While some have argued that the recent plummet in the muni market is overblown [and yes, the market does usually overreact/overshoot whenever it does large moves], I still say bondholders should do some of their own, independent analysis of the financials. There are probably plenty of good bonds out there, as we only hear of the large state profligates in the news -- California, Illinois, New Jersey, New York. But the fireworks may start first with municipalities... my eye is on Chicago.

And don't expect to get bailed out like Goldman Sachs did with regards to AIG -- the Democrats aren't in charge of the House any more, like they were in 2008.

Meep

Meep is a member of the Irish Catholic mafia, having a suspiciously high number of green-eyed, red-haired friends. While she doesn’t have red hair herself [except when she goes into the sun (rare for any vampire)], she does have green eyes. She’s a raving Papist and is a life actuary on the side [i.e., she counts dead people]. An amateur pain-in-the-ass [willing to go pro!], she likes covering retirement, mortality, math, and education issues.

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11Jan/115

Public Pension and Finance roundup 11Jan2011

It's time to balance that budget!

An extended sports metaphor applied to public pensions. A Hail Mary pass ain't going to fix this one. Who is the patron saint of public pensions? There should be one, as a miracle is needed to keep some unchanged.

Robert Samuelson frets that these cushy benefits for Boomers will suck resources from the younger generations and thus recommends cutting retiree health benefits since the pension benefits are legally untouchable. Oh, Robert. Rest your weary head. Doesn't matter that those benefits are "legally inviolate". If they can't be paid, they won't be, just like the health benefits. Doesn't that make you feel better?

In New Mexico, public employees will have to contribute more to their pensions. The intention is to have this addition to be in effect for only one year, but we shall see.

Some pension plans have tried to scrape back from losses via lawsuits over the past several years. Having a big money pot there is just an enticement to corruption and al sorts of bad behavior. Especially when there are only a few trustees or all the trustees are politicians, not numbers/investment people.

A little info via an Instapundit reader as to federal workers' pensions. Looks like that yes, there is a defined benefit portion that ain't too shabby. And they've got a defined contribution piece on top of that.

People ain't loving on public unions. Not horrible, but not terrific. Looks more in line with Obama's approval rating, it seems to me. So just middling.

CALIFORNIA

A year in review of California pensions from Ed Mendel of the Calpensions blog. Very thorough review, and there's more to come in 2011.

Remember those Univ of California execs from the last news update? They had better ready their lawsuit. Not much support to give them more money. I don't see how they thought anyone would have sympathy for them. Just give up now.

Jerry Brown will be putting his budget of cuts cuts cuts out there soon. Funny, I don't see anything about pensions on that list.

NEW YORK

President of Teamsters Local 237 claims NY is okay, pension-wise. It is true that NY has not been as remiss as NJ or Illinois - they actually have been making contributions. The question is how sustainable the pensions are given early retirement ages, double-dipping, and salary spiking. If those behaviors are not factored into the actuarial valuation, the plan can look better than it actually is.

But I agree, NY isn't going under -- before California, Illinois, or New Jersey does.

TEXAS

People have gotten their panties in a twist saying look! look! Texas has a deficit problem! Then Kevin Williamson explains how Texas finances works. Looks like zero baseline budgeting to me. That deficit ain't any more real than CBO projections. Anybody want to depend on those? Also, Texas has a rainy-day fund larger than many state deficits. What a concept....how did they manage to do that, hmm?

EUROPE

Looking across the pond, we see the Irish bank bailout (and others) ain't going so well. The main cash-supplier, Germany, is not doing well due to these desperate attempts to keep the euro together. Some lessons obvious to everybody, except those who think trickery can save their hash:

[Edited to just the bullet points]
1. Bailouts Don’t Work
2. Excessive Government Spending Is a Path to Fiscal Ruin
3. Low Corporate Tax Rates Are Good, but They Don’t Guarantee Economic Success if other Policies Are Bad
4. Artificially Low Interest Rates Encourage Bubbles
5. Housing Subsidies Reduce Prosperity

Just Say No to Build America Bonds 2: Electric Bugaloo, Porkulus 3: The Reckoning, or whatever else is being cooked up. I think the Republican House will prevent any/all of these, but one can slip past any who feel like "cooperating" in the name of "civility".

Meep

Meep is a member of the Irish Catholic mafia, having a suspiciously high number of green-eyed, red-haired friends. While she doesn’t have red hair herself [except when she goes into the sun (rare for any vampire)], she does have green eyes. She’s a raving Papist and is a life actuary on the side [i.e., she counts dead people]. An amateur pain-in-the-ass [willing to go pro!], she likes covering retirement, mortality, math, and education issues.

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8Nov/102

Public Pension Ballot Measures in California

Let's check how how public employee ballot measures did last Tuesday:

PUBLIC EMPLOYEE MEASURES
Defeats for public employees:
San Diego Proposition D: Half-cent sales tax tied to promises of pension reforms
San Jose Measures W: Allows city to offer future workers reduced retirement benefits
Bakersfield Measure D: Rolls back public safety retirement benefits for new hires
Carlsbad Measure G: Limits increases in public safety retirement benefits
Redding Measure A: Calls for phasing in employee CalPERS contributions
Redding Measure B: Calls for 5-year vesting for retiree health care
Menlo Park Measure L: Limits retirement for new hires, voter consent to raise
Pacific Grove Measure R: Limits city contributions to employee retirement
Riverside Measures L: Voter approval to change county public safety retirement
Riverside Measure M: Voter approval to raise county public safety retirement
San Jose Measure V: Limits arbitration awards to police and firefighters
Palo Alto Measure R: Firefighter union measure to prevent staffing cuts

Victory for public employees:
San Francisco Proposition B: Increases employee contribution toward health, pension

I want you to realize that some of those "defeats" weren't really defeats -- inasmuch they were milder measures compared to some items that had been threatened. But anyway, this is for just now.

We have an overview with more detail from Ed Mendel -- with some fun in the comments; just read the first two to get a flavor. And a separate overview from Steven Greenhut (check out Greenhut's book on public employee unions).

If I were a Calpers (or other California public union) member, I would take this as a warning signal. It might be best to come to the table to negotiate, before the right to negotiate one's terms are taken away. Let me remind once again: retired people cannot strike. And current workers may not strike on your behalf. As well, it is difficult to sue money into existence.

On a separate election note, a politician greatly misreading the electoral mood,
answered a question very poorly pre-election, defending the right to double-dip. Yes, it's legit, and yes, public employees might like the support in double-dipping....but the people paying for this benefit look upon it with a jaundiced eye. At the very least, Cooley could have decried double-dipping for himself and leave it at that. Or challenged his opponent. Or changed the subject.

I understand Cooley may yet win his race, but it's very close.

Meep

Meep is a member of the Irish Catholic mafia, having a suspiciously high number of green-eyed, red-haired friends. While she doesn’t have red hair herself [except when she goes into the sun (rare for any vampire)], she does have green eyes. She’s a raving Papist and is a life actuary on the side [i.e., she counts dead people]. An amateur pain-in-the-ass [willing to go pro!], she likes covering retirement, mortality, math, and education issues.

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7Nov/100

My Condolences, Govs-to-be

Ah, the aftermath of an election.

In three states: California, Illinois, and New York, the Republican tide did not touch the gubernatorial results. But in short order, the Democrats who won may not feel like winners.

Illinois

Illinois's race had the thinnest margin of the three, and yet the "winner", Gov. Quinn, calls this a mandate to raise taxes. Oooooookay.

So what's up in Illinois as of right now? As noted in a prior post, there are signs of a death spiral -- cashing out of assets. In lieu of scraping up necessary cash, they've been working on =borrowing= the necessary contributions. But it's stalled. It could change, but I'm not hopeful. When the "responsible" move is to put an IOU in the pension fund....this is not a good sign.

As I noted before, Daley is getting out of Chicago right before all the money is gone. Too bad Quinn is too stupid to see the signal. Maybe Rahm will get lucky and find residency requirements preclude him from running. Oh darn.

As part of rough projections by Professors Rauh and Novy-Marx, Illinois "goes Ponzi" within a decade (as John Bury likes to term it, and here are his own projections). Before the election, people knew the state was in a bad position. It still is, and I doubt much will be done with Quinn at the helm. Who wants to bet he'll make it through his entire term?

California
California, living up to its reputation as the land of fruits and nuts, has re-elected two retreads, and neither is going to be able to save California from its self-inflicted issues.

Could California pensions implode? You betcha. They are not in the death spiral that Illinois is. Yet. But there has been bad behavior for the past decades, in terms of goosing the benefits at the pinnacle of the market, right before it collapsed.

Even if California as a state can weather it's bad decisions with respect to retroactive benefit increases and contribution holidays, the municipalities might not do so well. And while there's no official way a state can go bankrupt and drop its liabilities (though they can definitely default on bonds), municipalities can definitely go bankrupt. And stop paying all sorts of bills. Here's a separate projection of when the money runs out.

New York

Part of Cuomo's run-up to governorship in the past year has been a "crackdown on pensions" - he already had the pay-to-play case before he started running in earnest, but then he went trolling for more fraud. Well, he got a few headlines for a few fishy situations of goosing benefits, but on the whole, nothing doing. The problem is it's not fraud that's making the pensions so costly.

Overall

Maybe they can buck up knowing the entire country is bankrupt as well, but the diff is that the feds can monetize their debt, no matter how much that will piss off the Chinese. China has a much worse demographic problem than the U.S. anyway, and at that point may not be paying attention to us.

But I say don't be counting on a bailout. Some people think it will happen. Some note the bailout has already started, in the form of Build America Bonds, but that's going to be running out soon. I wouldn't be counting on continuance. I went to the official source on BABs, and looked at distribution by state. Top 4 issuers in descending order: California (~$30B), New York(~17B), Texas(~15B), and Illinois(~10B). Yes, ostensibly these bonds are for capital projects, but money is fungible in the public purse, freeing up money for stuff like pension contributions.

The problem is when your state has been captured by a single party - the other party feels no obligation to help out, especially when it has just recaptured power in a big way. Texas's bond ratings are pretty good, so they don't necessarily need the help with the interest rate supports BABs bring. Looks like they're issuing those bonds in a rush before the gravy train shuts down.

Because it will.

Meep

Meep is a member of the Irish Catholic mafia, having a suspiciously high number of green-eyed, red-haired friends. While she doesn’t have red hair herself [except when she goes into the sun (rare for any vampire)], she does have green eyes. She’s a raving Papist and is a life actuary on the side [i.e., she counts dead people]. An amateur pain-in-the-ass [willing to go pro!], she likes covering retirement, mortality, math, and education issues.

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2Nov/101

Potfare, Tax Credits for Non-Taxpayers

Isn't there an entitlement to pot in California, yet?

Gov. Arnold Schwarzeneger says welfare recipients can no longer use state-issued debit cards at medical marijuana shops, psychics and other businesses whose services have been deemed “inconsistent with the intent” of the program.

Didn't see that coming.

Other businesses affected by the ban include bail bond establishments, bingo halls, cruise ships and tattoo parlors.

Fascist!

On top of everything else, it turns out the stimulus was an invitation to tax fraud: J. Russell George, the Treasury's inspector general for tax administration, just reported that he'd identified more than 125,000 individuals who got $111.4 million in undeserved tax-credit refunds, thanks to the 2009 Recovery Act.

We already knew that the stimulus failed to produce the miracles that President Obama, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid had promised -- the unemployment numbers alone are proof of that. Much of the cash went to the states, to roll back welfare reform and to allow states to avoid cutting their spending. Now George's audit of the IRS's handling of the 16 new or increased "refundable" tax credits has exposed yet another mess:

* 10,581 people got $65.6 million in Homebuyer Credits they didn't qualify for.

* 109,665 individuals got $29.7 million in Making Work Pay and Government Retiree credits they didn't qualify for.

* 5,345 people wrongly received $15.6 million in Plug-in Vehicle credits.

* 171 got $453,220 in erroneous Nonbusiness Energy Property credits.

* 2,933 received more than $95.8 million in excessive Qualified Motor Vehicle Tax deductions.

Democrats rushed the massive "stimulus" package through Congress within a month of Obama's taking office. More than one in every three dollars of "stimulus" -- $252 billion worth -- took the form of "refundable tax credits" (many to "taxpayers" who paid no taxes).

And now George has shown that the burden of processing these vast giveaways overwhelmed even the IRS's 100,000 employees and contractors, operating on a budget exceeding $12 billion this year.

Redistribution, working to plan: rewarding the most felonious Americans.

Dan Collins

Dan Collins is a dude who blogs. He used to blog elsewhere. Now he blogs here.

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9Jul/106

Rioting and Looting following California verdict

Let's Loot!

In the case where an unarmed man was killed by a transit policeman.  The verdict was involunatary manslaughter, as the jury believed the policeman's story that he meant to draw his taser, but, well, you know...A truly terrible event, and, arguably, justice has been done.  Which is more than can be said in the case of the New Black Panthers and their blatant voter intimidation.

But what I'm more fascinated by is the public response following the verdict; the rioting and looting that occurred in Oakland.  And, at least for me, it raises a very interesting sociological question.  Why is it, that the more colorful and diverse elements of California society seem to riot and loot whether the Lakers win the NBA championship or there is widespread dissatifaction with a court verdict?  It's like all routes on the decision tree ultimately lead to rioting and looting, whether in ecstatic joy or with burning outrage.

And why is it that there was no rioting and looting by the Tea Partiers following the cramdown of Obamacare; an antagonistic, in your face, action that ran completely against the will of the majority of the public as well?

Why does one group feel entitled to riot and loot, and another feel compelled to follow the rule of law?  Could it be the absolute moral authority inherent in being a member of an identity-politics  preferred victimhood group?  I mean, it's almost like one group completely lacks any sense of personal responsibility; and that's the members of the group whose leaders are most often bemoaning "hate speech" and calling for CIVILITY NOW!  But, you know, only when it's their guy that's being criticized.  Because, very much like the Oakland looters, the progressive left generally feels like they're enititled to be as uncivil as they believe the situation requires, while relying on the rest of society to adhere to the code of conduct they say must govern social and political interaction.  All very Alinsky-esque, non?

It's kind of a, "Do as I say, not as I do", rationale, eh?  What are your thought, kind reader?

Me?  I'll be busy scoping out stores to loot when the Democrats in Congress engage in a lame duck session left-wing agenda cramdown...

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