POWIP Piece of Work In Progress

Smart Power! or The Sting..?

In a surprising announcement this morning, one that confirmed suspicions that began circulating on Tuesday evening, President Obama announced that the US would scrap plans for a missile defense shield for eastern Europe, essentially reneging on promises that the Bush administration had made that were intended to bolster the security of Poland, the Czech Republic, and the European Union.  Instead the President pledged stronger and swifter defense systems, and said that based on Pentagon’s recommendations he would shift the focus to defending against missile threats from Iran that would be viable in the short and medium term.  Although Obama’s statement was brief, speaking from Baghdad Vice-President Biden  hinted at the logic of behind the decision saying “Iran is not a threat” and “I think we are fully capable and secure dealing with any present or future potential Iranian threat.”  But all are not in agreement on Iranian capabilities, pointing to their successful satellite launch; essentially a demonstration of missile technology that could easily be converted to military use.

 

Reaction from overseas was mixed to be sure.  In the Czech Republic, Social Democrat leader Jiri Paroubek and “activist” Jan Tamas expressed relief and called it excellent news; of course, both were major opponents of missile defense and loathe to the idea of foreign soldiers being stationed on Czech soil.  Likewise, NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen praised what he called, “A positive step” that would “improve the involvement of all NATO nations.”  And the decision was also hailed by Gordon Brown who said that, "Non proliferation remains a very high priority for the United Kingdom." 

 

As would be expected, the Russians were overjoyed with this development.  Although Russia’s NATO envoy warned against “childish euphoria” over the announcement, Mr. Medvedev, Russia’s President, said that he appreciated the responsible move by the US and was willing to continue dialogue.  State Duma foreign affairs committee head Konstantin Kosachev told the Associated Press: “The U.S. president’s decision is a well-thought (out) and systematic one. Now we can talk about restoration of (the) strategic partnership between Russia and the United States.”  But, they evidently weren’t quite pleased enough to agree to any new round of sanctions against Iran, perhaps one of Obama’s motivating factors in the sudden termination of this longstanding defense plan.  Just today the Russian foreign minister, Mr. Lavrov, said that his country firmly opposes any new sanctions and believes that such a move would ruin hopes for a diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear situation. So, it looks like the Russians have accepted Obama’s olive branch, and repaid him by slamming the door in his face !

 

On balance though there were more negative reactions than positive.  Where to begin?  Let’s start here at here at home.  John McCain said he was disappointed with the seriously misguided decision, and warned that it could undermine US standing in Eastern Europe amid worries there of a resurgent Russia.  Senate Republican whip Jon Kyl called the decision “dangerous and short sighted”, and warned that “it would send a chilling message to former Soviet satellites who had braved Moscow’s anger to support the system”.  And  former US Ambassador to the UN John Bolton blasted Obama, “It's just an unambiguously bad decision,” he went on to say, “Russia and Iran are the big winners. I just think it's a bad day for American national security”.  Even some of the Democrats are quietly asking the President just what we are going to get out of this concession.

According to Michael Goldfarb of “The Weekly Standard”:

This represents a complete capitulation to Russia's Vladimir Putin, who had demanded that the proposed deployments be halted as a price for improved relations. Ironically, the Obama administration, which is appeasing Russia in the hopes that Moscow will help put pressure on Iran, has made this mammoth concession just a few days after Moscow declared that it had no intention of supporting sanctions against Iran.

The consequences of this action in Eastern Europe, especially in Ukraine and in other countries that feel vulnerable to Russian power, will be disastrous. It is a major American retreat in the face of Russian bullying. And we will get absolutely nothing for it.

[emphasis-ed.]

Goldfarb also points out that the administration is being dishonest on their policy “fact sheet”:

The White House has put out a “fact sheet” on their policy of Russian appeasement/missile defense surrender. The fact sheet says that the new approach — focusing on SM-3 and sea-based systems (presumably in Turkey) — will “augment our current protection of the U.S. homeland against long-range ballistic missile threats.” That is a lie. This system will provide zero, nada, zilch protection to the U.S. homeland, providing only defense against short- and medium-range missiles to Europe.

The fact sheet says this system will protect “our Allies in Europe sooner and more comprehensively than the previous program, and involves more flexible and survivable systems.” That is a lie. The system that was being placed in Poland is already operational in Alaska. These new plans will now take years of negotiations to implement and will necessarily be less survivable as they will not be underground.

There’s that unfortunate “L” word cropping up again; but I guess Goldfarb is just another racist, you know, as opposed to citing stubborn fats and inconvenient truths.  Take a moment and read the whole thing; that the administration would feel the need to smear missile defense in order to justify appeasing the Russians is appalling.

David Frum makes a convincing argument that Obama is heading for a foreign policy disaster; it doesn’t take a preview reel to see that coming attraction. 

In Eastern Europe, Former Czech and Polish leaders expressed a mixture of surprise, dismay, and angry resentment.  Czech legislator Jan Vidim indicated that this development would negatively color future relations between the countries:

"If the administration approaches us in the future with any request, I would be strongly against it,"

In fact Poland’s prime minister refused to take Secretary of State Clinton’s telephone call!  And former Polish President Lech Walesa was quoted:

“American has always cared only about its own interests, and those of others only serve the US. Now we have another example of this,” he said in a television interview. “I can see what kind of policy the Obama administration is pursuing towards this part of Europe. We should reconsider our approach to the United States.”

I’m sure the former leader of the famous “Solidarity” non-communist trade union, whose movement led ultimately to a succession of anti-communist revolutions in Eastern Europe, was especially pleased that the announcement of this historic double-cross coincided with the  anniversary of the Soviet invasion of Poland; 70 years ago on this day.  I wonder if Obama prefaced his statement to the Polish diplomats by wishing them a happy Molotov-Ribbentrop day?

Meanwhile, according to today’s “Kiev Post”:

Diplomats here say Moscow hardliners could read the shield backdown as a sign of Washington's weakness. Far from doing the bidding of the United States, they may instead press for further gains to shore up Russian power in the former Soviet bloc.

…

Analysts are particularly concerned about Ukraine, which faces a presidential election next January. Most of Russia's vast gas exports flow through its territory and the country reluctantly hosts a large Russian naval base.

Russia has already rebuked Kiev for its "anti-Russian" stance and refused to deal with President Viktor Yushchenko, tactics which recall those used with Georgia in the period leading up to last year's war.

In a sign of the level of concern, one senior Western envoy here privately estimated the chances of a Russian military intervention in the Crimea over the next year at 50-50

[emphasis-ed.]

But perhaps some of the most startling reactions to this are found in the British newspapers; that have a more gloves-off style, and are far less worshipful of Obama than many of their US counterparts.

Nile Gardiner of “The Telegraph UK” thinks it’s all about appeasing Russian aggression:

This is bad news for all who care about the US commitment to the transatlantic alliance and the defense of Europe as well as the United States. It represents the appalling appeasement of Russian aggression and a willingness to sacrifice American allies on the altar of political expediency. A deal with the Russians to cancel missile defense installations sends a clear message that even Washington can be intimidated by the Russian bear.

[emphasis-ed.]

And Gardiner is not the only skeptic; Toney Halpin rips the President for selling out not only Eastern Europe, but indeed the entire EU:

By trading the loyalty of Poland and the Czech Republic to satisfy Russia’s security concerns, the United States is signalling that it no longer contests Moscow’s right to assert its interests in Eastern Europe.

Ukraine and Georgia’s chances of entering Nato over Russian objections have diminished further. The timing is disastrous for Ukraine in particular, given the Kremlin’s determination to reverse the pro-Western Orange Revolution and ensure victory for a pro-Russian candidate at presidential elections in January.

The Baltic States, already in Nato, will be feeling a chill as they ponder an even more assertive Russia. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have been among the Kremlin’s most vocal critics but Nato’s new Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen has declared a “true strategic partnership” with Russia his top priority.

The Bush Administration delighted in emphasising relations with the “new Europe” of former Soviet bloc countries, often at the expense of recalcitrant “old Europe” of Germany and France on foreign policy.

Mr Obama has shown that the US is no longer playing that game. He wants Russian help on Afghanistan and Iran and is leaving Europe to resolve its own relationship with Moscow on everything from energy security to historical grievances.

The Kremlin can barely believe its good fortune. Mr Obama has pressed the “reset” button to improve relations without obtaining anything more than permission for US aircraft to cross Russian airspace on resupply operations for troops in Afghanistan.

…

In fact, Moscow may become more intransigent, arguing that Washington itself no longer takes the threat as seriously as it did by cancelling the missile-defence shield. Any such argument would only harden Israel’s determination to act.

Some analysts in Russia have begun cynically to ask whether the Kremlin wants to see a war in Iran, arguing that this would send oil prices soaring and replenish state coffers emptied out by the economic crisis.

[emphasis-ed]

Smart Power !…The kind we heard about during the last election…

Smart Power !...Bolstering our nation's missile defense program by, you know, canceling the deployment of forward interceptor batteries...

Smart Power !...An Orwellian statement essentially proclaiming that weakness is the new strength...

Smart Power !…Throwing our allies under the bus, or more like to the Russian wolves bear; and all we get is a Bronx cheer, the one finger salute, and a shoulder shrug accompanied by absolutely NO movement on the issue of Russian enabling of the Iranian regime; not even the bone of a minor utterance about the danger of a nuclear armed Iran…

You know who I’ll bet thinks this is Smart Power, besides Obama?  General Electric !

Shortly after the pullback on the shield program was announced, Russia's government said Prime Minister Vladimir Putin would meet several U.S. executives on Friday from firms including General Electric, Morgan Stanley  as well as TPG, one of the world's largest private equity firms

That would be the same General Electric whose CEO sits on Obama’s economic recovery advisory board; the same General Electric that owns MSNBC. So I guess all those crappy ratings resulting from the network “selling out” in order to get Obama elected were worth it, eh Jeffrey?  If wonder if they promised that Olbermann would name Putin, “The Best Person in the World”, in order to ice the deal?

Is anyone else experiencing deja-vu?
Facilitates a rogue Iran, led by a fanatical leader bent on Israel's destruction?...Check

Shows the “wimp hand” instead of the “pimp hand” to the Russians?...Check

Takes a bad domestic economy…And makes it worse?...Check

Cancels or truncates advanced military systems in the pipeline...Check

Willfully diminishes our military or squanders our advantage...Check

Tells all Americans they have to “sacrifice” and/or “cut back.”...Check

Now if in the coming months Captain Brilliant! comes out with a lame statement along the lines of, “Putin Lied”, or, “Medvedev Lied”, like Jimmy Carter did when he lamented that “Brezhnev Lied!” about his intent to invade Afghanistan, then I’ll be sure.  He’ll be a worse President than Mr. Carter.  But short of that, he’s only tied for the worst!  So until then I think I’ll call him Jimmybama…Because of the Smart ! Power…

UPDATE: Darleen over at Protein Wisdom links to an interesting NRO piece by the editors of the same.

UPDATE II: J.E.Dyer at Commentary magazine weighs in on what he calls Obama's "Ostrich" defense.