SuperDuper Public Pension Roundup! 1Mar2011
I've got a metric shit-ton (that's the technical term. Google it.) of tabs open right now, and they MUST! BE! CLOSED!
So let's kick it.
CALIFORNIA
This story is so bad, it gets top billing:
Two high-ranking officials at the Orange County Employees Retirement System have been placed on paid leave in connection with a $228 million mistake that has resulted in multi-million dollar pension catch-up bills for agencies countywide.
In particular, the Orange County Fire Authority has been handed a catch-up bill of $76 million – the amount of contributions that went uncollected for eight years for “special pay” stipends for paramedics, EMT’s, and others with specialized jobs.
“To get a bill like that was devastating,” said Joe Kerr, president of the 800-member Orange County Professional Firefighters. “How could this oversight have gone on for so many years?”
OCERS has agreed to let the firefighters pay the bill over a 25-year period, at $4.5 million a year, beginning in July, said Lori Zeller, OCFA assistant chief of business services.
Now, I've made substantial errors in my time, but nothing like that. That took some doing. I have a feeling that more than those two will end up gone by the time that mess is cleaned up. If it gets cleaned up. This has been going on since 2003, it seems.
This next one is actually more important, and I will write a separate post on this later....in my copious free time. Ha. This is the Little Hoover Commission reviewing public pensions in California:
But a new report from the Little Hoover Commission in Sacramento makes a more troubling point: Many state and local government employees have been promised pensions that the public couldn't have afforded even had there been no crash.
The commission's analysis of the problem is hotly disputed by union leaders, who contend that the financial woes of pension funds have been overblown. The commission's recommendations are equally controversial: Among other things, it urges state lawmakers to roll back the future benefits that current public employees can accrue, raise the retirement age and require employees to cover more pension costs. Given that state courts have rejected previous attempts to alter the pensions already promised to current workers, the commission's recommendation amounts to a Hail Mary pass. Yet it's one worth throwing.
Here's a link to the full report, and a short overview of the report's contents. Across the pond is a similar study, with more incendiary language -- calling public pensions "Madoff-style pyramids". And yet another report -- most public pension plans are in crisis.
Look. The unions had better think about what they're going to be able to live with, b/c "I've got mine" ain't going to work. They don't got theirs til all the cash is in hand, and they're dead, no longer receiving pension payments. That stuff can be taken away, as a practical matter, at any time.
States cannot run the printing presses. The money can, indeed, run out. Current retirees, forget about current employees, can get dinged in a major way.
Many states and cities are making changes right now to try to make sure the promises might actually have a chance of being achieved. And that may involve a variety of benefit haircuts, amongst other things.
Some people are still in denial about these possibilities. "It's illegal!" they cry. Ask the retirees of Prichard, Alabama if legality pays their pensions. Because they've gotten nothing since 2009.
So quit having the vapors over changing benefits for current employees and thinking there must be some more rich people to tax. It can, and will, get much worse than that.
That's it for my commentary. Now it's time for the link explosion.
Charter amendment in L.A. to roll back public safety benefits.
Showdown brewing over CA state employee pensions.
Employee pensions much higher than advertised.
A rundown of the proposals Brown had made during his gubernatorial campaign.
Tim Cavanaugh from Reason on how public pensions killed California. More on pensions bankrupting California.
Reform sought by Orange County Republicans...including the newly popular "Let's rescind collective bargaining!" Kevin Williamson explains that it's not the collective bargaining that makes for the awful amounts of public employee benefits, but the mere political existence of public employee unions. Back to those O.C. pols: more coverage of their proposals. And yet more coverage.
Considering defined contribution plans for public safety workers in San Diego.
Pension crisis? What pension crisis? Almost 200 California plans raise benefits.
FLORIDA
Revision to Florida pension bill, requiring more employee contributions as part of Governor Scott's push to reform Florida pensions. There have been lots of editorials supporting Scott's proposed changes. Scott compared the Florida situation to Social Security problems.
Evidently, part-timers had been getting pensions from Florida.
Looking at pension reform choices in FL. More considering what needs to be done in Florida.
Analysts say Florida fund is okey-dokey. So...have they fixed that "sole trustee" issue, yet? More on that analysis.
RHODE ISLAND
Rhode Island has highest unfunded pension liability per capita
PBS Newshour coverage of the Rhode Island incipient pension disaster
A tale of Providential double-dipping.
More on Rhode Island's pension squeeze.
MISSISSIPPI
Mississippi puts off increasing pension fund contributions
VIRGINIA
Plan to divert school funds to pension funds not popular
NEW YORK
Reminder that Cuomo said he wants to tackle pensions. He's been pretty quiet lately, hasn't he?
Mayor Bloomberg also proposed pension cuts, noting that the city has no power in negotiating those.
NEW JERSEY
It's the heavyweight champeen Gov. Christie in this corner against flyweight MD Gov. O'Malley, duking it out over pension reform.
Massive head for the exits in NJ... might as well collect benefits before the money runs out.
Christie says NJ pensions will be broke by 2020 without reform. I guess he's been reading John Bury. Even with reforms, the future isn't bright.
D.C.
D.C. pensions need reform, too.
WISCONSIN (v. MINNESOTA)
A comparison of what WI and MI employees pay for their pensions.
More on the Wisconsin employee benefits and collective bargaining.
Wisconsin's pension fund one of the financially healthiest in the country.
OHIO
Burden of pension reforms to be put on employees for Ohio's five pension plans.
Keep an eye on this court case about retiree health benefits....because post-retirement healthcare is considered one of the weakest benefits in most public employee benefits packages, because almost all of that is pay-as-you-go -- and that's most definitely =not= sustainable.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
GOP proposals for NH pension reforms.
Public employees protest pension reforms.
ILLINOIS
Governor claims that Illinois pensions won't need federal bailout. HA HA HA. Wow, he's getting good at that stand-up act.
TEXAS
Teacher pension plan working against spiking- the practicing of goosing the final year salary to get a higher pension payout.
GENERAL ISSUES
And now, in the interest of some balance, something from a Teamsters leader.
And another pro-public employee point-of-view...it's actually reasonable, though. You should read this one.
The problem is that the blame game doesn't get the pensions paid. Progressives try to gin up a class war and find the haves v. have-nots weren't the classes they had in mind.
The best case scenario at this point for many public employees is to end up in the same system as most private workers, and most will get at least some of the benefits originally promised them.
Prichard won't be the last case of a public pension going totally under and the retirees ending up with nothing. So people should make their plans accordingly.
I understood that there would be no math
[Silly people - with Meep, there's always math!]
Recently we saw the new White House spokesman getting broken in by Jake Tapper:
"If I borrow money from you to pay off the interest for the debt I owe to Geoff, am I not adding to my debt? ... The president seems to think that that borrowing money to pay the interest on the debt is not adding to the debt. I don't understand that math."
That's been a theme of late. A lot of tricksy math, that at its heart, is shown to be a total fraud. Here's a bit of math I think any of us can understand:
"Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen pounds nineteen and six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery."
That's the wisdom of the inimitable Mr. Micawber from David Copperfield [a Dickensian character who was a thinly disguised copy of the author's spendthrift father]. A wisdom that the current generations are learning the very very hard way.
Let's look around to see if we can see more harsh math, shall we?
The government's primary activity? Moving tiny bits of green paper around:
That's supported by fewer and fewer people:

Need to have money for retirement? You really should be saving lots more than you already are. No really, you're screwed. Big reason for being screwed - longer life expectancies [even in Canada!]. And unrealistic expectations...or treating expectations as certainties.
And here's something quick for New Jersey public employees considering retirement. But given how well the pension has been funded... well....that's what you get from having an electorate that doesn't care about math. [Math is hard! Aren't there rich people we can tax?]
Enough doom and gloom! Let's look at happy math! [and speaking of rich people to tax....]This here guy just had great bank from his old boss -- that's new White House chief of staff Bill Daley who got $8.7MM from J.P. Morgan.
Okay, enough happy talk. Back to penury. California teachers pension headed toward insolvency. Illinois governor seeking federal backing of pension obligation bonds....ha ha, good luck with that one, Quinn, with a Republican House. As per Jake Tapper questioning borrowing to pay for interest payments, others are questioning Quinn's borrowing plan for Illinois.
San Diego retirees, I don't know how much longer you'll be getting that 13th check pension bonus.
For those who want a bit more public pension valuation wonkery, Girard Miller breaks down some of the major issues in the area.
And back to some more hopeful math -- Gov. Perry of Texas challenging the UT system to figure out how to cut costs. Well, I guess it's hopeful if you're a prospective student. The profs might not be as happy about it. Hmmm, perhaps I know of a company that could talk with them [the fact I contract with them is clearly coincidental]... [UPDATE: A plan for reaching the 10K degree, and yes, online videos are involved.]
MORE MATH: The dismal math of fixing Social Security - if we want the benefit structure to be unchanged and make a fix right now, then payroll taxes must bump up from 12.6% to 15.7%. But that's assuming a change is made right now. I favor changing the benefit structure to make people change their behavior to working longer.
Parents to pay up for public schools in California, beyond normal taxes
Public finance and pensions roundup 30 Jan 2011
INSTALANCHE! Howdy new readers - if you really want to get depressed, I've got a whole series on this subject.
BANKRUPT STATES
I'll lead off with John Bury's post adding to his argument that NJ is the most bankrupt. His prior post on NJ being number one. I think Illinois is in a worse situation, but I do agree with Bury that any business that jumps from Illinois to NJ is jumping from the frying pan straight into the fire. I don't care how much one likes Chris Christie.
In other news, the credit rating agency Moody's is warning the states that it will [FINALLY DAMMIT] be factoring in unfunded pension liabilities in the states' credit ratings.
Jeb Bush and Newt Gingrich sticking their oar in on a plan to make some sort of federal bankruptcy for states. Ace posting on that story. The states are not amused about any of this. LA Times editorial against the idea. Various quoting of pols.
The impact of state indebtedness on current services and infrastructure projects.
Three strategies for broke states - relates to government-run schooling.
Forget about education - a real low-hanging fruit of state expenditure is Medicaid.
NEW YORK
Bloomberg decides it's about time to get around to addressing NYC pensions. Given that he can't run for mayor again, and may be seeking a larger political stage. Banning trans fats and promoting bike lanes only gets you so far.
An "alternative view" on public pensions. I'll let you make your own rebuttals. For example, I'm sure the people of NJ are very happy that pension payments are contributing to communities in Florida. Small portion of the budget? Tell that to Salinas. I guess from one point of view, 14% is small. If it stayed there.
Double-dipping in New York ["retiring" and then getting rehired - so getting both salary and pension payments at same time.]
CALIFORNIA
Marcia Fritz of California Foundation for Fiscal Responsibility talks about the need for pension reform in the Golden State.
The "new" governor Jerry Brown decides to give the pension issue a pass, and proposes other cuts...that doesn't even cut half the budget gap.
San Diego town council not covering public workers for prior sweet deal made improperly. To wit: the workers have got to eat it, to the tune of about $100MM collectively. Hey, the workers who got payments over what they should have should be happy they're not being asked to pay the excess back for benefits already received. Anyway, it will almost definitely go to court.
California pols really not happy about idea for state bankruptcy.
More from San Diego - the downside of getting new employees out of the defined benefit system. They don't pay into the fund. Now, given that defined benefit plans for state pensions are not supposed to be Ponzi, this shouldn't be a big deal. I don't see why new employees really should be plugging up the holes of overly generous benefits for prior ones.
ILLINOIS
Not exactly only about Illinois, but a Washington Examiner editorial notes the sweetheart deal Quinn cut with unions right before his election.... and the proposed transparency bill by Rep. Issa in the House that could derail such a deal. [Of course, there's no way this sucker is getting much past the House. But you've got to start somewhere.]
Illinois is getting a little extra scrutiny from the SEC on its recent pension accounting switcheroo. More on same. And more on same from the NYTimes. An editorial on the issue.
An editorial with one of my favorite proposals: no pensions for legislators. They already get to vote on their own salary.
Chicago proposal on pensions: increase employee contributions, make goal to reach 80% fundedness in 50 years [as opposed to 90% in 30... either way, I think there will be a cashflow problem long before the proposed horizons].
Illinois still not current on its bills.
DOOOOOOOOOM … Pensions and Public finance roundup 23Jan2011
So I hear from my ma that some football game is on right now, which seems like the perfect time for a MASSIVE LINK DUMP! I will not dump Illinois links right now... [my ma tells me that Chicago is sucking and it's halftime - so it will be extra chocolatey schadenfreude tomorrow, eh?]
I'm not even bothering with a narrative right now. I'm just doing a bulleted list. Some of these date back to December [or maybe earlier], but given the long-term issues of public finance and public pensions, that's just a second in that world.
- Mish on Prichard and other possible pension bankruptcies .. ok, I lied - he talks about Illinois. It's kind of hard to avoid given that it may be the first to implode.
- But John Bury thinks New Jersey will implode first. More from Bury on NJ pensions.
- When the money runs out, people start leaving the Golden State. Gonna be hard the squeeze the taxpayers when they're not there any more.
- Wretchard on the same issue of California going Greek
- and Wretchard's piece was in reaction to Victor Davis Hanson, longtime Californian, writing on same
- I have no clue what's going on in Pittsburgh. It seems to me that they don't either. More on the Pittsburgh situation.
- More California stupidity - continuing the public employee hires in the face of huge pension shortfalls
- Gov. Rick Scott of Florida shoots out a pension warning -[good news, Rick! I bet you're not as bad as Illinois...] Of course, some people disagree with Scott.
- New governors giving public unions a warning on reality
- A bit on the University of California execs who had gotten a bit uppity at a bad time. A little more on this - they got rejected. And more on that.
- Some Rhode Island pension stuff - to wit, some pols realize that special pol pensions are unpopular
- Some private pension savings confiscation, courtesy of Europe
- That's partly why I'm not into privatization of Social Security. As per Tom Sowell's column on the Ponzi nature of SocSec, I bet they'd confiscate any "private savings" in such a program.
- New Jersey starved the pension beast? Uh, I don't think so.
- Eeenteresting. NYC Comptroller scrubbed a meeting b/c someone had separately stated NYC pensions were too piggy? More from the WSJ.
- Wah wah wah. Maryland's pension problem not workers' fault. Guess what guys? Doesn't matter. If it's unaffordable, it's unaffordable. Doesn't matter who's to blame.
- Oh Lord. Headline: Jacksonville Pension Director Says He Can Earn 8% ROI And There Won't Be A Solvency Crisis. I don't think I need to comment further.
- Public pension boot camp for California pols
- Rating agency Fitch comments on the state of public plans in the U.S.
- Some more of the wahmbulance for public workers. That said, there are some good ideas at the end.
- A guide for conservatives on how to talk about public plans. I really don't agree, but whatever. No time to argue on this.
- The narrative: all the governors have budget worries. The payoff: bailouts? Ha.
- Some stuff on California pensions in court.
- Yet another proposed federal fix to public pensions. Good luck with that. This is Darrel Issa proposing it, and while I like the proposed bill, I don't see it getting past Obama, and I don't see Reid allowing it to see the floor of the Senate.
- Not pensions, but even worse on a short term basis: the states' Medicaid mess
- Stupid thought of the month: no, retirement age should be lowered, not raised!
Ok, halftime is probably over by now. But the Jets aren't playing yet, and we know that's the only game that matters.
No Federal Bailouts: Let Them Eat IOUs
I first saw David Skeel's proposal to make a federal law to allow for entire states to go bankrupt back in November 2010. Kenneth Anderson at The Volokh Conspiracy pointed out some real state sovereignty issues with this proposal-- federal judges making essentially political decisions? [not like they've not already dictated state budgets before].
Later Joe Mysak notes that Chapter 9 bankruptcy, which is available to municipalities, would not fix the public pension problem painlessly.
People look at historical examples, which show that under municipal bankruptcies, everyone will get screwed. Except the politicians who had set up the problem and left in a timely manner. States do go bankrupt, in terms of defaulting on their bonds -- it was more common in the 19th century, and we've not had a good state bond default for almost 80 years now.
I've been sitting on some of these links for months and cogitating on the possibility of federal bankruptcy law for states, and yadda yadda yadda. I'm going to let the law-talking dudes talk that one over. I'm more in the money-counting/number-crunching crowd. And definitely, like Tom Sowell, in the No Bailouts crowd.
There's going to be a lot of whining from the "Ooooooh, won't somebody think of the poor public employees!" crowd, in trying to gin up a federal bailout, but boy, your timing is bad. Reality will hit, and that "will" is not that far in the future.
Those who wrote a "positive right" to the public pensions for workers forgot that government is not all that great at enforcing positive rights like that -- if they've not been good at preparing for their promises, they will be able to squeeze taxpayers only so much to try to fulfill them. Once the financial event horizon has been crossed, it will not matter what various parties "deserve", it will not matter what is "guaranteed" in various state constitutions. When there ain't no money, somebody is going to have to alter their expectations, and that's going to hit a lot of somebodies.
While some have argued that the recent plummet in the muni market is overblown [and yes, the market does usually overreact/overshoot whenever it does large moves], I still say bondholders should do some of their own, independent analysis of the financials. There are probably plenty of good bonds out there, as we only hear of the large state profligates in the news -- California, Illinois, New Jersey, New York. But the fireworks may start first with municipalities... my eye is on Chicago.
And don't expect to get bailed out like Goldman Sachs did with regards to AIG -- the Democrats aren't in charge of the House any more, like they were in 2008.
Public Finance and Pensions News – 5 Jan 2011
OVERALL:
Which funds will go kerflooey first, an analysis by actuary John Bury. While the percentages are rather dire, one of the things I'd like to see is a comparison of the payouts to the operating budget for the various entities. While legislators' funds tend to be poorly funded [there's a reason for that -- usually there's a cliff as they might come into the fund with years credited from other public jobs -- depends on the system], the absolute amounts doled out are small and easy to hide as pay-as-you-go within a larger budget. But the really large plans might be difficult to cover even if their percentage shortfall doesn't look bad.
The budgets aren't looking much better, and many new leaders are talking down expectations.
Where would the money come from? Cities losing people, and these are cities that often have pension fund shortfalls already. Who are they going to tax? They'll go the way of Prichard, I think. Hard to squeeze out property taxes when no one lives there. Additional: America's Most Bankrupt Mayors.
ILLINOIS:
An analysis by Bill Zettler of Illinois pensions, part 1. He shows how Illinois pensions can't even be paid under best-case scenarios. And how the dire state of the State of Illinois will soon be exposed under new government accounting regs. In part two, Bill shows that not only the pensions can't be paid, but they won't be paid. There is a distinction. Go and read.
I don't know if the people of Chicago could handle the horror of pension shortfall disclosures, but it's going to be a policy that will be difficult to avoid, no matter how many labor groups are trying to get this canned. If Rahm is mayor, I'm sure he'll think of a way to get around it. Daley doesn't think that future looks bright (someone give me the list of those running for mayor -- I never want to hear about how smart these people are, ever.)
While the soon-to-be-former mayor's brother is being considered to replace Rahm -- ah, musical chairs.
Oh, speaking of musical chairs, the Comptroller who had been squawking about the dire state of Illinois pensions has found himself a soft landing at an actuarial consulting firm that specializes in public pension management.
Anyway, good luck plugging that debt hole. No, really, good luck. No, really, your pensions are on the line, too. It's not just pensions weighing down the budget, of course.
Tom Bennett in the comments pointed me here: 19th Ward Chicago. The latest post I see is on the four pensions state senator Ed Maloney is eligible for. As I have said many times before -- no pensions for politicians. It's bad enough that they get paid when they're doing the job. We have to pay afterwards in memory of all the crap they did to us, too?
NEW JERSEY:
A bit back, Gov. Christie talked of various pension reforms, but there's an odd legal fight over mandatory reitrement age for safety officers.
There's an article on the $54 billion-dollar shortfall in NJ pensions, which is noted to be misleading by John Sexton at Big Journalism. Note that the unfunded retiree health coverage is even larger.... and guess what? That stuff ain't guaranteed.
NEW YORK:
While running out the door, Paterson mentions the precarious state of NY pension funds, Cuomo comes in with a state worker pay freeze. But the pensions are the thing, Andy.
ODDS 'N' SODS
Math error in Pittsburgh requires last-minute recalculation to prevent state from taking over pension plan. I really really want to know what the screw-up was. Formula problem in spreadsheet? Wrong discount rate? Wrong cashflow projections? Mistaking years for months or vice-versa? Any Pittsburgh actuary would like to email me (marypat.campbell@gmail.com) -- it's not for publication, it's just that calculation screw-ups are a specialty of mine. I don't blog about it here, but I do a lot of writing on spreadsheet error and design.
With a great sense of timing, UC execs demand pension contributions from California. Law dean, you had better ready your lawsuit, because y'all are way down on the priority list. And you're not very sympathetic.
Hawaii's pension and finance problem - yes, certain states get more attention due to the eye-popping numbers, but it's not just NJ, NY, IL, and CA.
Making Promises for Someone Else
...and trying to make them stick.
Doesn't work too well in one's personal life, and it's not working too well in public life now.
Two examples from the Fat Man of New Jersey - first, via Ace of Spades, we have Chris Christie talking about how Corzine tried to suck out all the cash as he was going out the door; and the most recent decision from Christie to kill a rail tunnel for which Jersey would have been on the hook for cost overruns.
The whines go up from the crowd ... "OH BUT WE WERE PROMISED!" Yes, and who was promising? Do you see those people in the governorship of NJ? Christie isn't putting up with that crap.
All sorts of groups are learning the value of a government promise -- when they can't even pay basic bills to outside vendors, do you think you're going to be safe, public employees? You can pour as much money as you want into the election, but that didn't help ex-governor Corzine, now did it?
The governed class are now in revolt against the governing class, and trying to make them pay for the promises they have made and want to make. The money is running out fast in some pension plans; John Bury (now in new blog digs) has projected the NJ pension money will be gone in 5 years.
Of course, it's not just public employees -- people are trying to hold onto the "entitlements" that demographics are not going to let us keep unchanged... but while people don't want them cut, they do realize that they will be cut.
But this is the real bottom line - even if the public unions did manage to buy/steal the election via various shenanigans, there's not much they're going to be able to do to keep the cash train running. The money is running out, no matter who is in charge. And the way this demographic Ponzi stops working, it's not that people can cash out and get their dough before it collapses. They need a steady flow of money.... and at some point that will stop if expectations and benefits aren't moderated starting now.
And you bet your sweet bippy that a "correction" of these expectations is going on right now, and will be imposed on the Boomers. I may love my Ma, but it's not like I feel any obligation to her collective generation. Others who waited too late or had no kids...nobody is going to feel obligated to you.
And we certainly don't feel obligated to fulfill the promises you made to yourselves, hoping to impose them on younger generations.




