POWIP Piece of Work In Progress

3rd quarter GDP numbers revised downward again

Not surprisingly, so too were Mr. Obama's poll numbers!

At the end of October, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced that third quarter GDP had grown at an annualized rate of 3.5%.  Of course, the Obama administration hailed the news as a clear cut sign that the recession was over, and that happy days were here again.  One month later, when the numbers were revised down to 2.8%, they still heralded the sign of prosperity to come, even in the face of criticisms over how they could possible have missed the mark so much.  Today came the stunning news of another downward revision, based on a third pass of the data, to an annualized growth rate of 2.2%.  The overall figure was driven lower in just about every sector analyzed, but was significantly effected by revision in business investment and inventory liquidation.  Even the oracles at Goldman Sachs didn't expect to see it revised this much lower.

Marla Singer and some of the other folks over at Zero Hedge, people that know infinitely more than any erstwhile financial geniuses in our audience,  point out that, on it's face, revisions this large should remind us of 3 important things:

1.) The Bureau of Economic Analysis of the United States Department of Commerce has ceased to be (if it ever was) a reliable outlet for economic data.  (Be this the result of misfeasance or malfeasance depends on the reader's propensity to credit conspiracy theory).

2.) That what passes for the professional prognosticator class these days is pathologically incapable of realistic appraisal.

3.) That the largest single expression of a Keynesian "injection" in the history of Keynesians or injections (or the planet) struggled to create even the most anemic growth.  Net the double counting of stimulus funds it seems difficult to imagine even a remotely encouraging (or positive) "growth" figure could be tortured out of the economic realities that would be so plain if one but looked out the window to forecast them.

If it isn't clear to everyone by this time that the United States remains firmly in the grips of a massive "shadow recession," then we can only credit this ignorance with some unshakable and deeply rooted form of denial or a seriously reckless case of willful blindness.  Either way, we would like to commend the current powers that be for their tour de force performance in establishing themselves firmly both as the most masterful of bullshit artists to occupy the beltway (and that's saying something) and simply the most economically inept (and expensive) team ever to hold national office.  The risk adjusted returns on this particular ruling clique would make the pre-dollarization Zimbabwe carry trade look attractive.

[emphasis-ed.]

Wow.  That's pretty strong stuff, but justified I'd have to say.  Cap'n Ed Morrisey over at Hot Air thinks that Congress should look into this:

The third-quarter growth looks a lot more anemic than advertised by the Obama administration, especially when one considers the gimmicks that temporarily boosted its performance.  Most troubling is Commerce’s poor performance in analyzing economic conditions.  If they’re so incompetent as to miss this figure by 37% (1.3 from 3.5 is slightly over 37%), then clearly they need some fresh talent.  If they got pressured into stating overly cheerful numbers, it’s something else entirely.  That would be something Congress should investigate … if we had an independent Congress at all.

Yeah, if they weren't doing important stuff like...Investigating the BCS, or trying to ram Obamacare down the throats of a nation that clearly doesn't want to take that medicine.  Maybe they're just intellectually incurious !

Originally, the cash-for-clunkers and first time homebuyers program was estimated to have counted for half of the GDP increase, around 1.75%.   Considering that the increases in consumer spending, a metric driven largely by the two government programs mentioned previously,  was only reduced by one-tenth of one percent, from 2.9 to 2.8 %, it is safe to accept the estimate that 1.5% of the GDP increase can be attributed to the two incentive programs.  And, so it's also probably safe to say that minus any government stimulus, the economy would be flat-at best.  Wouldn't it have been better then to not have saddled ourselves with the additional trillion dollars, principle and interest, that the stimulus cost?  And isn't it even more ridiculous then to be actually talking seriously about a second stimulus?

Remember when actual growth numbers under Boooooooooosh! were disparaged as a "jobless recovery"?  Do you think there could be any more of a jobless recovery than we have now?  Do you think that will get any better as the winter sets in?  Or as the taxes associated with Obamacare commence (God forbid)?  Now that he's taken ownership of the economy, you'd think the President would be more concerned with employment rising than the sea levels rising...

And that brings us to the latest update from the department of hope-n-change.  It seems that between the public percieving the administrations determination to ram Obamacare down their throats, regardless of their wishes, the astronomical increase in government spending, Obama's recent and risible "I'm a defecit hawk, yo" pablum, and his foreign policy follies that his public approval ranking are also revising sharply downward.  Rasmussen marks Obama's Presidential approval rating at a staggering -21.  And, perhaps more importantly, the same poll also provides the inconvenient truth that for the first time more Americans strongly disapprove of the Presidents performance than those who at least somewhat approve.  As Ace snarks, this certainly must translate into a solid B+ ...

Sounds to me like he's on the next train to Boooooooosh!-ville.  Or as the old blues singers exclaim, he's "Goin' down".

Who knew that so many Americans could suddenly become such horrible RAAAAAAAAAACISTS!

(Image courtesy of olbroad.com )

Rocketman