POWIP Piece of Work In Progress

4Feb/115

Did you ever get the feeling that they are just making this stuff up?

By "they" I mean the US government, more specifically the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and by "stuff" I'm talking about what is commonly known as the unemployment rate.  And the reason I think someone there is smoking crack, or something like that, is because the metrics in today's employment report defies reason.

According to the BLS the number of non-farm payroll jobs added to the economy in January was 36,000; which is a HUGE! miss from the expected number of 145,000, but somehow the overall unemployment rate dropped to 9 percent!?!  How is this possible, you ask?  Well it's some good ol' statistical legerdemain.

You see, the number of "unemployed persons" dropped by 600,000 last month as well; but that's not because they got jobs.  They merely dropped off the statistical radar because they stopped collecting unemployment benefits (their 99 weeks were up), so we don't really know why they aren't looking for work anymore, just that they aren't.  So, voila !, less people looking for work = the unemployment rate going down.

Never mind that unseasonally adjusted U-6 (total unemployed plus thiose who have goven up looking for work) surged, going from 16.6% to 17.3% .  Never mind that the number of people not in the labor force has increased by over 2 million folks in the last year.  Never mind that the number of "unemployed persons" has dropped by nearly a million in the last 2 months, despite less than 200,000 jobs being added in the same period of time.  And never mind that the labor force participation has dropped to a 26 year low of 64.2 % .  Silly wingnuts, facts, reason, and logic are for h8terz!  All you need to know is that lord Obamus the great has managed to bring down the unemployment rate by nearly 1 percent since the November elections by virtue of his sheer awesomeness!!!

So remember, HAPPY DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN!!!, the President's superlative "pivot" skills have paid off, and his laser-like focus on jobs has clearly borne fruit.  It's time for all you h8terz to stop talking about Obama's failed economic policies, get with the program, and start offering him praise and laud...

This concludes this POWIP PSA, you have been informed off all of the latest employment related talking points that you will hear in the coming weeks.  If any new talking points arise, we will inform you as soon as we catch wind of them.

And in all seriousness, we continue to pray to God that all those truly seeking work will find some, and trust in the good Lord to provide for them as He does for us all.

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7Jan/110

Happy Days are Here again! Unemployment down to 9.4%

According to the figures released by BLS this morning, as reported by the AP.  But curiously, the non-farm payroll job increases fell far short of the conventional wisdom estimates by economists; especially following in the wake of yesterday's barn-burner metric released by ADP claiming that employers added 297,000 jobs in December, coming in at 103,000 on expectations of 160,000 while private payrolls increased by 113,000 on expectations of 178,000.  Is it time to start repeating the phrase, mantra-like, "Obama's failed economic policies". yet?

So if less jobs were created than expected, why did unemployment go down?  Because the level of workforce particpation has dropped to a 25 year low.  Once unemployed people give up looking for work, the government stops counting them as part of the U-3 unemployment number.  In fact, the U-6 underemployment number, which more accurately measures total unemployment, is edging closer to it high in July 2010, currently stranding at 16.6% up 0.3% from November.  And some folks believe that number may be understated as well, since a great many self-employed folks who are effectively unemployed are not necessarily included in that figure.  I wonder where all the agitators decrying the "jobless recovery" have gone?

While some unemployed finally getting jobs is always good news, the average worker is still getting less than 40 hours a week, and these figures are subject to later revision, as always.  So we won't really know the actual numbers until February 4th, when the January report comes in.  If you have a job, or are self employed, count your blessings, and in any case, pray for those who need work but are unable to find any.

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4Jun/102

Is Obama “jobbing” us about the jobs picture?

Teh Lightworker cometh!

I remember when the O!ministration promised to "pivot" and focus laser-like on jobs and the economy.  But these days, I'm starting to wish that the lightworker could at least focus laser like on reality!  In suburban Maryland, just outside DC, Obama chose to use a local small business for his latest public palaverings; hailing the BLS labor report, a statistical decrease in the unemployment rate, and-of course- remind us that "happy days are here again indeed".

President Barack Obama says the addition of 431,000 new jobs in May shows "the economy is getting stronger by the day."
The president says that even though the census jobs are only temporary, private sector hiring is growing, too.

Now I don't want to spoil the Presidents fun or derail his latest attempt at talking up the economy; or tell us how the stimulus saved us-again.  Nor do I take any satisfaction in the BLS data falling far short of the mark that many had etimated it at, between 600 to 700k.  I truly wish employment were growing, especially in the private sector, but that's just not the case.

As Jonah Goldberg points out at The Corner, and links to a more complete reference, not only did the number of private sector jobs increase pitifully compared to a month ago, but that overall participation in the workforce declined by a couple of ticks, to 65%, and that the decrease in the unemployment numbers was due to people leaving the labor force !

In fact, Tyler Durden at Zerohedge arrives at substantially the same figure, with respect to unemployment, of people being subtracted from the unemployment number by sifting through the BLS data and doing some simple arithmatic.

What's problematic for the White house is that prominent avowed Keynesian economists are starting to say that the economy is going south as well, such as former CLinton Labor Secretary Robert Reich; a gentleman I have had the pleasure of meeting a few times during my days in DC, and who generally speaks his mind whether part of the approved narrative or not.  And I'm certain, that his latest observations are definitely not! part of the script:

We’re falling into a double-dip recession.

The Labor Department reports this morning that the private sector added a measly 41,000 net new jobs in May. (The vast bulk of new jobs in May were temporary government Census workers.) But at least 100,000 new jobs are needed every month just to keep up with population growth.

In other words, the labor market continues to deteriorate.  

The average length of unemployment continues to rise – now up to 34.4 weeks (up from 33 weeks in April). That’s another record.

More Americans are too discouraged to look for a job than last year at this time (1.1 million in May,  an increase of 291,000 from a year earlier.)

Of the small number of jobs created by the private sector in May, many came from temporary help services.

Admittedly, he seems to be under the impression that the answer is...wait for it...More Stimulus! But while I disagree with that particular solution, as it makes it harder to reduce federal spending whith all of these stimulo-bucks being tossed about in the hopes that something will stick, I find it interesting that while Obama insists on the rose-colored, unicorn riding, interpretation, Reich is bold enough to speak the inconvenient truths.  Would that mean he's speaking TROOOOOOOOOOOF! to POW-AH!1!1!!eleventy?

And maybe as important is the question, when did Bob Reich become such a, well, you know...RAAAAAAAAACIST!

[Update] Jeff at Protein Wisdom has a post on the subject with a link to a  Bloomberg news piece that scrutinizes the numbers also.

Image courtesy of Jabberinwookie

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6Nov/0921

Prosperity is back!; Unemployment jumps to 10.2 %.

Left: U-6 unemployment, Right: Comparison of predicted to actual unemployment

Left: U-6 unemployment, Right: Comparison of predicted to actual unemployment

[Click on image to enlarge]

10.2%... That's the highest level in 26 years !  Lately, the number has been hanging around the high 9's, due mostly to people dropping out of the job market altogether.  There's a more asccurate measure of unemployemet, one that the legacy media doesn't like to talk about, U-6 unemployment-the metric that includes those discouraged folks, which comes in at a whopping 17.5%, up from 17% in September.  But, you know, GDP is up!, Happy Days are Here Again!,  Obama has stopped the sea levels from rising and the economy from falling, all because of his awesomeness.  From geoff at Innocent bystanders:

The President and his economic team have claimed that the plan is working as intended, that they’re on track to save the original goal of 3.6 million jobs, but somehow, despite practically drowning in success, we’re going to have to live with high unemployment for years to come. Oh, and that everything is still Bush’s fault.

Remember that last part.  It's Boooooosh!'s fault...Even though the residual unemployment from the dot com bubble bursting was never Clinton's fault.  So if happy days are here again, and the streets lined with silver and sidewalks paved with gold, and the stock market is going to carry us all to a new level of bull market prosperity we could never dream of, is it at least safe to say that this is a jobless recovery ?  You know, the chant we heard throughout 2003 and 2004, when unemployment maxxed out an 7.2 % and was actually falling instead of, um, rising..?

I guess that Funemployment! is part of that Change! we heard so much about during the last campaign, courtesy of Obamanomics.

(Graphs courtesy of Innocent bystanders and Zero Hedge)

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4Sep/093

Meanwhile, back in the real world private sector

augustunempdata

In what can be viewed as extrapolation of Enoch’s earlier post on the growing number of opportunities in the public sector, I thought that I’d provide some information on the state of affairs in the private sector; just so that we could all relish the Hope-n-Changey goodness of it all!

You know, it’s a good darn thing that our betters in Pelosi’s Politburo Congress passed the spendulus bill, otherwise unemployment might be heading north of 9%...

Oh, wait…

I’d like to make it clear that none of us here at POWIP, nor in the greater sphere that comprises the conservative side of the nation’s political spectrum are relishing the continued economic struggles of our economy at large and many of our fellow Americans in particular.  Unlike our many of counterparts on the port side of the ideological divide, who took great pleasure in reporting military setbacks in Iraq and who desperately tried to paint every economic metric reported on during the Booooooosh! Years as a signpost on the road to ruin, we are simply pointing out matters of fact and trying to tie up the loose ends that are largely unaddressed by the MSM.  And, to a small extent, we are using these facts to underscore the many of the reservations that opponents of the spendulus had at the time of it’s passing, as well as the hubris laden conceit of Obama administration official who pronounced, and still try to talk up with weasel words, just how many jobs they have created/saved and how that legislation has succeeded in turning the economy around.

And I won’t even start on the “shovel ready! ” connivance, or the combined hypocrisy of repeating that along with the “Jobs! ” and “Science! ” mantras while shutting down the already running F-22 production lines and the successful, and never more needed, missile defense programs.  I’ll reserve the right to rant about that ‘til another time…

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